Kenyan
statesman and veteran politician Raila
Odinga has emerged as the leading contender for the African Union
Commission Chairperson position. With endorsements from over 25 African
nations, Odinga’s strategic
diplomacy and coalition-building efforts could secure a historic victory in the
February 2025 election. His campaign has garnered significant momentum, making
him the front-runner in what is shaping up to be a fiercely contested election.
Stiff Competition and Diplomatic Efforts
Despite
his strong lead, Raila Odinga’s
African Union Commission Chairperson bid faces competition from Djibouti’s
Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf
and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard
James Randriamandrato. Both contenders have mounted campaigns within their
respective regions, with Youssouf securing
backing from the Arab League’s 27 states. However, Odinga’s ability to build alliances across multiple regional
economic blocs has given him a strategic edge.
A
recent survey by Pan African Forum (UK) Ltd placed Odinga at 52% support, but to secure the AU Chairperson seat, he
must win either by consensus or by securing a two-thirds majority of the 55
African heads of state. His diplomatic outreach continues as he crisscrosses
the continent to consolidate support, underscoring the importance of every
single vote.
Growing Support for Odinga’s Candidature
Raila Odinga’s
quest to be the next African Union Commission Chairperson is getting clearer by
the day with 25 member countries having pledged to support Kenya’s candidature.
The government’s campaign team, led by the Foreign Affairs Ministry, has
reported progress in convincing seven other African countries to support the
country’s quest. This will increase Kenya’s numbers to 32 out of the 48 Heads of State that will vote in February.
According
to the Africa Union rules governing the election, the successful candidate
needs two-thirds of the votes cast, which this season is 32 since only 48 countries are eligible to vote.
Building a Continental Coalition
Starting at Home: The East African Community (EAC)
Odinga’s
campaign began within the East African Community (EAC), where Kenya, Burundi,
the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and
Uganda have pledged their support. This seven-nation bloc provides a strong
foundation for Odinga’s pan-African leadership ambitions.
IGAD Endorsements
In
December 2024, Odinga extended his campaign to the Intergovernmental Authority
on Development (IGAD) region, securing the support of Eritrea despite IGAD also
fielding a candidate in Djibouti’s Mahmoud Youssouf. With Uganda and South
Sudan already backing him under EAC, Odinga has established a strong foothold
in East Africa.
Gaining Ground in SADC
Early
2025 saw Odinga focusing on the Southern African Development Community (SADC),
where he visited Mauritius, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho,
and Mozambique within ten days. South Africa’s endorsement, in particular, has
been a diplomatic milestone in his AU leadership bid. With Zambia and Angola
also backing him, Odinga’s influence in SADC is solidifying.
ECOWAS and West African Support
The
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been another crucial
battleground. Odinga has secured backing from Togo, Nigeria, The Gambia,
Senegal, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Côte d’Ivoire. Analysts highlight
ECOWAS’s considerable influence within the African Union, making these
endorsements a diplomatic triumph.
COMESA and North Africa Engagement
Odinga’s
outreach extends to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA),
where 10 member states have thrown their weight behind him. Additionally, his
diplomatic visits to Tunisia, Algeria, and Mauritania aim to consolidate
crucial votes in North Africa, reinforcing his continental coalition.
A Proven Pan-African Champion
Odinga’s
extensive political résumé strengthens his campaign. As Kenya’s Prime Minister
(2008–2013), he guided the country through a power-sharing agreement while
driving national unity and economic reforms. From 2018 to 2023, he served as
the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development, where he
championed cross-border projects to boost regional trade. These initiatives
have cemented his pan-African leadership credentials.
Agenda 2063 and the Road Ahead
At
the core of Odinga’s platform is a vision aligned with the African Union Agenda
2063, focusing on: • Economic integration and expansion of the African
Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) • Infrastructure development for enhanced
connectivity • Conflict resolution and strengthened continental security
frameworks
Although
Odinga’s expanding coalition places him as the clear front-runner, the February
2025 election remains unpredictable. With the two-thirds majority threshold in
mind, his final weeks will focus on diplomatic maneuvering and securing
political consensus. The world is now watching to see whether Odinga’s
pan-African vision will propel him to victory and usher in a new era of
transformative AU leadership.
#Raila Odinga# African Union Commission #AUC Chairperson
election #African politics #AU
leadership #diplomatic endorsements #Africa 2025 #pan-African leadership #continental
coalition #African Union Agenda 2063.
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