By Dr. Tapiwa Mashakada, Maji-Marefu
Institute of International Relations and Security Studies
The
invasion of the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine by Russia was predictable and
compelled by sovereign security concerns. NATO is pushing its orbit and sphere
of influence to Russia's door steps and that is unacceptable for any
superpower. The geo-politics of the Euroasia region shifted dramatically with
the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 at the behest of the CIA and its
mole, Michael Gorbachev. America succeeded in destroying the huge Soviet
Empire which spanned Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Lithuania,
Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
Tajikistaj, Turkmenia and other Soviets. The soviet union had
become become an imperial super power which also extended its orbit to
communist Eastern European countries like Poland, Romania,
Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia.
The
soviet union extended its communist orbit to as far as Cuba, Yugoslavia
and Africa. This sparked a serious cold war in the 1960s, 1970s 1980s
with the USA which reached a peak during the 1974 Cuban Missile crisis when the
then Soviet leader Kruschev deployed nuclear missiles on the door steps of
America.
But
in 1991 Gorbachev destroyed the USSR from within leaving Russia economically
weakened. Nay, militarily weakened. Russia agreed to disarmament and signed
several treaties with America. America and NATO recruited the former Communist
countries in Eastern Europe. This did not end there. NATO admitted
into its membership, most former Soviet Republics like Georgia. America and NATO
deployed defence missiles and warships in Eastern Europe and former Soviet
States. All this happened in the face of a weakened Russia.
But
for Russia, the most devastating thing was the likelihood of losing Ukraine to NATO.
The historical and cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia are strong. A huge
Ukranian population is either Russian or speak Russian. Russian gas pipes to
Europe pass through Ukraine. One of the biggest Soviet era nuclear plants
called Chenobyl is in Ukraine. Ukraine gives Russia a geopolitical access to
the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.
*The genesis of the Russo-Ukranian
Conflict:
In
2014 an Ukrainian pro-Russian President was ousted by prodemocracy groups
backed by the EU and America. The ousted President fled to Russia. Following
the ouster, Russian speaking regions in eastern Ukraine rebelled and fought
bitter independence wars with Ukraine for their sovereignty. Ukraine responded
by heavy force and committed genocide in the breakaway Regions which were
quickly recognized by Russia. Ukraine continued to attack and bomb the
Russian speaking separatist region and Moscow responded by annexing Crimea from
Ukraine. This gave Russia access to the Black Sea. This angered NATO and
America who responded by deploying missiles in the region.
In
view of all these hostile acts by America and NATO, Russia had no choice
except to arm itself and be ready for war. Ukraine continued its anti-Russian
mantra and applied to join NATO. This was the last stroke for Russia. How can
Russia be comfortable with a NATO member on its border?. So the invasion of
Ukraine was a pre-emptive security maneuver to secure the strategic interests
of Russia. The objectives of the invasion are 3 fold:
Firstly
to stop Ukraine from joining NATO. Secondly to stop Ukranian genocide in the
eastern breakaway regions of Dones'k and others. Thirdly, to give a
warning to Nato and America against the militarization of the Euroasian region
and eastern Europe.
The
war is meant to achieve peace and security in the region. The EU and America
have imposed sanctions on Russia but Russia is unfazed. The war in Ukraine is a
do or die for Russia. NATO and its Allies have deployed lethal weapons in
Ukraine. It is a proxy World War 3. Talks have been called in Switzerland
between the belligerents. Russia's demands are that:
1.
Ukraine surrenders
2.
Ukraine stops genocide in the eastern region
3.
Ukraine stops joining NATO
4.
NATO stops the deployment of missiles and warships in the region.
Meanwhile
a humanitarian disaster is looming. Thousands of Ukranian citizens are fleeing
to Poland and neighbouring countries. Regrettably, African and Indian
students are prevented from leaving. There is naked racism happening in
Ukraine. This is most unfortunate. I hope that Zimbabwean students and
nationals are safe.
NATO
is mistaken to think that Russia wants to reestablish its Soviet empire. I dont
think this is correct. The Soviet Union is gone. The egg cannot be unscrambled.
The security threats faced by Russia are real and must be addressed. America
must stop her double standards. It was good for USA to invade Afghanistan but
wrong for Russia to invade Ukraine? What is good for the goose must be
good for the gander.
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