THE simmering political power struggle between President
Emmerson Mnangagwa — currently ruling under military tutelage after
coming in last November through a coup — and his co-deputy retired
General Constantino Chiwenga over the unresolved Zanu PF leadership
issue after the overthrow of former president Robert Mugabe has now exploded into the public domain.
This follows the shooting and killing of more than six civilians in
Harare last week in the midst of violent protests over the
hotly-disputed presidential election result.
The incident and renewed repression in the middle of fierce reprisals
against the opposition has outraged Zimbabweans and the world, leaving
the country under siege as it slides back into political instability
reminiscent of the Mugabe era.
Mnangagwa, who has emerged weaker after the elections which revealed
his fragile social base in Zanu PF and nationally as he won by a
wafer-thin 0,8% margin, while his party got a two-thirds majority, has
buckled under local and international pressure to investigate the
gruesome killings which were captured vividly in the mainstream media
and social media platforms.
High-profile security bosses and experts fear that the current
environment might precipitate a bloody fight between Mnangagwa and
Chiwenga, and their militarised factions.
“Now that Mnangagwa has caved in to pressure to appoint a team to
investigate the shootings, which suggest he did not deploy the army
himself and ordered the killings, this will bring him into direct
confront with Chiwenga,” a security boss told the Zimbabwe Independent
this week.
“He might want to settle big political questions with this. This will
become messy, particularly in the context of the unresolved Bulawayo
explosion mystery which has fuelled suspicions and tensions within the
Zanu PF leadership hierarchy. We are under military tutelage and hence
some brinkmanship between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga, and their allies.
“But for now the big question here is: who deployed the military and
ordered them to kill civilians? Was it Mnangagwa or Chiwenga, or both in
consultation? Was the deployment constitutional and lawful? Who also
ordered police to disrupt the media conference? There are volatile
issues in this political powder key environment.
“Therein lies the moral hazard of the coup; you will have some
agitation when some individuals change their behaviour as their
risk-taking is borne by others. This is a recipe for disaster.”
The security chief added: “Let me give you an example of the military
in Tunisia and Egypt. In Tunisia, the military was prevented from
dabbling in politics under founding leader Ben Ali. When army attempted
to participate in the ruling party’s congress in 1979, Ali refused to
attend and dismissed the defence minister.
“In Egypt – we will come to Zimbabwe later – the military is dominant
like in Syria. The Egyptian military has been the repressive pillar of
all the past regimes since the July 23 revolution (the Egyptian coup of
1952 led by first president Muhammad Naguib and his successor Gamal
Abdel Nasser which had far-reaching consequences for the country and the
region).
“In Zimbabwe, Mnangagwa is facing the moral hazard familiar in
authoritarian repression environments. He is in a big dilemma: if he
confines soldiers to the barracks, he can easily be overthrown by MDC
Alliance or the opposition related movement in the streets. But if he
relies on the military for repression and to fight them, he becomes
vulnerable to an almost inevitable challenge by Chiwenga and the
military.
“Of course, Mnangagwa and Nasser are very different and the
situations are also not the same, but there are a few parallels. Nasser
was a very consequential Egyptian leader; we are yet to see Mnangagwa’s
impact and legacy.
“After taking power through the military in 1952, two years later
Nasser survived an attempt on his life by a Muslim Brotherhood member.
Following that there was fierce repression and he put his ally in the
coup (Naguib) under house and seized power. So you have coup allies
fighting each other just after two years down the line.
“In the aftermath of the second coup, Nasser’s fears of his own
military heightened. It is not really surprising Nasser became
suspicious of his own military afterwards. They seized power together
with Naguib and 24 months later he grabbed power for himself using the
army, hence there was no logical reason why his allies in the military
could not do the same. I’m not saying this will happen in Zimbabwe, but
the environment and conditions might lead to that. The signs of internal
strife and tensions over an unresolved leadership issue, power and
self-aggrandisement are bubbling under the surface.”
As first reported by the Independent months back, political events
currently unfolding in the country are pointing to emerging deadly
factional confrontation between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga, widely seen as
the power behind the throne.
The chaotic Zanu PF primaries, the defeat of Mnangagwa’s key allies
in the general elections, the Bulawayo explosion and the bloody polls
aftermath are said to have become a deadly cocktail fuelling tensions
between the two leaders.
Mnangagwa before the elections publicly spoke about an inside plot to
impeach him after the polls. During the campaigns, Mnangagwa and
Chiwenga appeared like rivals instead of allies, insiders say.
Mnangagwa also spoke about an attempted assassination after the
Bulawayo explosion which killed two security aides and injured many
other people. He did not exactly say who was behind the attack.
Although Mnangagwa might have some newfound authority following his
recent disputed narrow election victory which gave him the people’s
mandate, Chiwenga’s manoeuvres since the coup last November suggest he
has presidential ambitions and may not be patient for his boss to even
finish one term.
Insiders say initially the coup deal was that Mnangagwa would come in
as a civilian face and serve one term and go, leaving power to
Chiwenga.
However, Mnangagwa’s repeated talk of two terms is said to have
widened the rift between the two. There have also been differences on
the transitional arrangement, critical appointments, dismissals,
especially in the security sector, business deals and the direction of
the administration, sources say.
That Chiwenga is holding the levers of power has been demonstrated in
various ways, including his own rushed appointment as vice-president
ahead of Oppah Muchinguri whom Mnangagwa apparently had given the job
and the seizing of the responsibilities of defence and war veterans from
co-vice-president Kembo Mohadi to him. Mohadi initially controlled
defence, security and war veterans, but once Chiwenga barged in he
grabbed defence and war veterans, while Mnangagwa took security amid
fears his deputy would become too powerful. Mohadi was compensated with
national healing and reconciliation portfolio.
Insiders say while he might have succeeded in toppling Mugabe,
Mnangagwa owes it all to Chiwenga – and his military allies – who
executed the coup on the ground while he was in South Africa after he ran away upon his dismissal by Mugabe.
Against such a background, Chiwenga is seen as the kingpin – at least for now.
The Zanu PF primary elections before the general elections laid bare their rivalry and infighting.
Zanu PF national political commissar Engelbert Rugeje – one of those
that traded military fatigues for civilian suits – was on coalface of
the battle. Its clearest manifestation was in Norton where the outspoken
war veterans leader Chris Mutsvangwa had lost to someone preferred by
the military.
Mutsvangwa, who was angry police officers had been used to in the
primaries run by the army, warned Mnangagwa could lose the presidential
election at that rate. Mutsvangwa, whom Chiwenga and his allies
apparently do not want, lost the parliamentary election. It is said the
military could have played a key role in ensuring Mutsvangwa lost to
independent candidate Temba Mliswa, a further manifestation of the
Mnangagwa-Chiwenga rivalry.
Mnangagwa controversially won by a narrow margin 0,8% backed by the military as Mutsvangwa’s warning almost came to pass.
MDC Alliance leader nelson Chamisa is challenging the result in court.
Recently, Mnangagwa, who was set to be inaugurated for his first term
of office this weekend, indicated he wants to serve for the two full
terms provided for by the constitution. Mnangagwa’s inauguration will
now take a bit longer after Chamisa’s court challenge.
However, insiders say Chiwenga is not prepared to wait for 10 years
of Mnangagwa’s rule to come in, settling the stage for a bruising power
struggle ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Disclaimer: Comment expressed do not reflect the opinion of African Parliamentary News