Festus Keyamo |
Festus Keyamo, spokesman of the campaign organization for the
re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari, has said that two more
Governors under the All Progressive Congress (APC), might leave the
party in the coming days.
In a statement on Sunday, Keyamo, however, insisted that the
defections from the ruling party at the National assembly and Benue
state, will not affect the chances of Buhari in next year’s general
election.
Last week, 52 APC federal legislators moved to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Samuel Ortom, Governor of Benue, also resigned his membership of the APC.
Keyamo is confident this posed no threat to Buhari, even if Aminu
Tambuwal, Governor of Sokoto, and Abdulfatah Ahmed, Governor of Kwara
pull out of the APC.
“The latest defections by some national assembly members and the
governor of Benue state WILL NOT harm the re-election of President
Buhari in 2019. This would even be so if the much-rumoured two more
governors also defect from the APC,” he said.
“The president won with large margins in the past in some states
without the support of majority of the politicians from those states who
moved recently to join the opposition party. Also, we are all
witnessing the significant gains Mr President is making in several
places where he lost in the past, notably in the south-south and
south-east.
“From the demographics we have now, the historic figures and the
present realities that we know, these defections will have little or no
impact on the chances of Mr. President’s re-election.
“The following 12 States, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi,
Sokoto, Zamfara, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe and Niger, with over 30
million registered voters, are States the President had consistently won
with considerable large margins in past elections, especially in 2011
and 2015. This was achieved despite the fact that most of those States
were being controlled by political parties other than his own.
“As we can see, any defection within these States would have little
or no consequence on President Muhammadu Buhari’s chances as he had
always won those States, irrespective of the Party in power in those
States. For example in the much-touted Kano, in the 2011 Presidential
election, President Buhari scored One Million, Six Hundred and Twenty
Four Thousand, Five Hundred and Forty Three (1,624,543) votes as CPC
candidate, while in 2015, he had 1,903,999 One Million, Nine Hundred and
Three Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ninety Nine (1,903,999) votes as APC
candidate. The vote difference of about Two Hundred and Eighty Thousand
(280,000) votes may be attributed to elements of ANPP, negligible ACN
and Senator Kwakwanso, then Governor of the State that came into APC.”
Keyamo also analysed Buhari’s chances in the south-west, saying the
“The following nine States, Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Kwara, Kogi,
Adamawa and Benue, are states the president lost in 2011 but won in
2015.
“The five south-western states have registered voters strength of
more than 14 million out of the about 20 million voters in these nine
States. Today, those five states are being controlled by the APC. Ekiti
will join before the 2019 election after Governor Kayode Fayemi is sworn
in for a second term in office. All the political gladiators in those
south-western states that helped to tilt the election in favour of the
President in 2015 are still solidly with him and more have joined.
“The entire defunct ACN structures that moved into APC are solidly
behind the President. In terms of defections in the western states, the
Party has gained more than it has lost as the likes of Senator Musiliu
Obanikoro, Senator (Mrs) Fatima Raji-Rasaki, Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Aremo
Olusegun Osoba, Senator Gbenga Kaka, former Governor Adebayo Akala, to
mention a few, are now with APC. To underscore the rising profile of the
Party in these States, the people of Ondo State and Ekiti State decided
to entrust their States in the hands of the APC by voting out the
previous PDP governments. Furthermore, these States are well represented
in government with a sitting Vice President, important ministerial
portfolios and prominent membership of the economic team. So, we can
only expect MORE votes, not less, from the west.
“In the remaining four States of Ekiti, Plateau, Taraba and
Nassarawa, where the President lost in the 2015 election with a margin
of 260,000, all the States had sitting opposition Governors except
Nassarawa. Ekiti and Plateau States will have sitting APC Governors in
February 2019 to help sell his candidacy and we have also seen defection
of some serving and past Senators from Ekiti State to the APC. With
this we expect a reduction in the margin or an outright victory.
“Even if there are going to be defections from APC in these four
States, we don’t see the margin of loss expanding beyond the 260,000
given that the States had majority opposition Governors at the point the
President suffered these loses.”
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